"Double 11" ten years: from traffic anxiety to consumption classification

Original title: GMV growth slowed down, the trend of industrial Internet shows "double 11" decade: from traffic anxiety to consumption classification

Li Li

It took 10 years for Shuang11 to make Taobao Mall a flash in the panorama and to go to the global Carnival shopping festival.

At 0:00 on November 12th, the total volume of 2018 "Tmall double 11" (GMV) was finally frozen at 213 billion 500 million yuan. An hour ago, as the founder of the festival, Alibaba CEO Zhang Yong rushed from Hangzhou to Shanghai World Expo Center to confirm the final number, then trotted all the way to the center of the stage to make a final summary statement.

However, "double 11" is no longer the "double 11" of Alibaba. Star Map data monitored 22 e-commerce platforms (including Tianmao, Jingdong, Suning Easy-to-buy, Merchandise Fair, Pingduo, etc.) participating in "Shuang11", and the final sales of the whole network were 314.3 billion yuan. More than 2017, "double 11" of 253 billion 900 million yuan, an increase of 24.3% over the same period.

Behind the "Shuang11" decade are profound changes in the industry: from consumption upgrading to grading, e-commerce channels from decentralization to centralization, new opportunities still erupt in vertical market segments, such as the "Pingduo" lead the "Pingduo" outbreak; online and offline integration, digital transformation has become the theme of e-commerce and brand merchants in the past two years; big data, cloud computing Beginning to become the real infrastructure to promote the development of e-commerce; behind the shopping carnival, the improvement of logistics experience is the participation of artificial intelligence and the construction of intelligent logistics network.

GMV battle behind the scenes

On November 11, it is the Convention of "Tianmao Shuang11" to announce the total trading volume of the day in real time by scrolling large screen. This number gradually became the epitome of shopping carnival.

According to reporters combing, in 2009, "double 11" sales volume was only 52 million yuan. In 2010, the figure soared to 936 million yuan, an increase of 1772% over the same period of last year, and then the growth of Shuang11 declined year by year. In 2016 and 2017, the growth rate of GMV in Shuang11 was 32% and 39%, respectively. This year, the growth rate was 27% year-on-year, falling to the lowest level in history. According to industry insiders, the fundamental reason for the slowdown of Tianmao Shuang11 growth in 2017 is the huge base, and further upward movement needs more impetus.

Beginning in 2017, Jingdong also disclosed transaction data. The volume of transactions in 2017 (November 1-11:24) reached 127.1 billion yuan, and in 2018 it was 159.8 billion yuan, an increase of 26% over the previous year. Vip.com also announced its first trading volume of 10 billion 200 million yuan in 2018, an increase of 27% over the same period last year. In addition, other e-commerce companies did not announce trading volume. Suning Easy-to-buy announced a 132% year-on-year increase in all-channel sales of "Shuang11" in 2018, more than 9 hours than last year's "Shuang11" GMV.

Why do electric providers like to bask in the "double 11" GMV? This is not only a window to show the fundamentals, but also a consideration of competition. Take Ali as an example. Although GMV has been diluted in the past few years, Shuang11 is still an important window for monitoring GMV in its fiscal year. In addition to profits, investors are still very concerned about Ali's revenue and GMV growth momentum.

However, AI media consulting CEO Zhang Yi believes that we should rationally treat the "double 11" trading volume, and do not exclude the data of GMV as having bubbles. First, the data lacks third-party supervision. Secondly, there is a false and prosperous component in "Shuang11". Consumers tend to concentrate on consumption in "Shuang11". They overdraw consumption for a period of time through promotion. In addition, "double 11" is also an opportunity for manufacturers to clear inventories. "The product is not necessarily the best, nor is it the normal product that should be profitable. The use of inventory clearance, resulting in seemingly good platform data, but in fact for many businesses, may not be profitable situation.

From closed to open

In Zhang Yong's view, online and offline integration is the biggest characteristic of the 10th anniversary "double 11".

According to reporters combing, this year, including Ali * Tmall, Taobao, flying pigs, speed sell, Lazada and other online platforms, box horse, word of mouth, hungry and other offline consumer scenarios, Yintai shopping malls, incredibly home, big RFA and other stores have begun to participate fully in the "double 11".

The online and offline consumption scenario is a preliminary test of Ali's new retail sales in the past two years. Opening the flow pool can bring more traffic resources to Tianmao Shuang11. It is worth noting that Ali Department is also more and more open to the business of off-site traffic, encouraging brand off-site traffic to bring traffic back to Tianmao. For example, the core of Tianhe plan for brand launch is that the brand side jointly disseminates the original off-site brand marketing resources, and drains them back to Tianmao, thus replacing more on-site resources of Taoxi.

According to reporters from the eastern side of Beijing, this year, unbounded retail launched version 2.0, with thousands of brands and 600,000 stores participating in the "double 11". In addition, innovative formats such as Jingdong Home, Jingdong Convenience Store and Jingdong X Unmanned Supermarket also cooperate with Lenovo, Five Star Electrical Appliances and other brands.

Unlike Ali and Jingdong, Suning, a traditional retailer, is rich in resources under the line. According to Hou Enlong, President of suning.com, there are 1 stores in Suning participating in the "double 11" this year. According to the data exposed during the previous exposition, the number of new stores in China reached 5,000 this year. Conservatively, it is estimated that the total offline network of Suning will break through 20,000 by 2020.

In the view of industry insiders, these potential expressions are the traffic anxiety of e-commerce. When online traffic reaches the top and transfers to the offline, the system must become more open. Otherwise, it is equivalent to confining itself to a closed flow pool.

In Zhang Yi's view, online and offline linkage is only a form, not a replacement or iteration, combined with this form online will develop even more fiercely. Under the electricity supplier's investment line, it is inevitable. The risk of opening a shop under the line is high and huge investment.

Future growth point

Behind the online and offline traffic is the digital transformation of the brand.

Lily, a business fashion brand with 900 offline stores in China, has conducted in-depth cooperation with Tianmao in new retail sales. Sun Mingyang, deputy general manager of Lily, regards Lily as a nomadic people, which used to be "where the flow is", but now the mere laying of channels has been transformed into consumer operation. Through the digitization of stores and the new retail transformation, data mining is carried out on the trends and consumer portraits of the stores in order to form more accurate consumer insights. It provides reference for subsequent products and supply chain.

Merlin, managing director of Thai Joint Venture, believes that the value of offline big data is reflected in accuracy and universality. Compared with the replicable online data, the offline data is more accurate and expresses people's real consumption intention. Offline data covers a wider range of people, including older people and children under 10 who are hard to cover on the Internet. Offline data can help us capture their consumption behavior and willingness.

Large data-driven C2M (Customer-to-Manufacturer customer-to-factory) is a typical model of data-driven supply chain transformation. In the view of BELLE international executive director Li Liang, C2M can be regarded as one of the broad new retail concepts. It is reported that Baili is using in-shoe chips to capture the reaction of consumers after trying on shoes. For example, one shoe has a high rate of wearing, but its sales are not good. When the clerk feedback the consumer's shoes, the back strap will fall too long, resulting in lower sales volume. Designers timely revise the shoes according to user feedback. This shoe became NO.1 style this spring, creating a single product sales of tens of millions.

In the view of the industry, C2M is still at an early stage, but it clearly reflects the power of big data to supply chain. For a long time to come, searching for growth point and keeping GMV high-speed growth will still be the main demand of Tianmao. This requires e-commerce platform not only to play a simple channel role, but also to provide empowerment for brand through big data empowerment and help brand enhance conversion rate.

What is the future of "double 11"? Zhang Yong did not give a clear answer. However, whether from Tencent's structural adjustment or Ma Yun's re-emphasis on "new manufacturing", the trend of BAT from consumer Internet to embrace industrial Internet has become very obvious. In the next stage, technology-enabled enterprises will solve various problems in the field of production and improve the efficiency of production and sales, which will be more important for Internet companies in the future.

As a representative product in the field of consumer internet, "Shuang11" can only successfully solve the problem of presbyopia if it completes such a role change.

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