"Double 11" Southern China express market: the cost is soaring and the gross profit margin is declining.

"Shuang11 encounters a round of express price increase every year," a clothing wholesaler in Zhongshan told China Business News. "Usually, the price increase ranges from 0.5 yuan to 1 yuan, and the express fee will fall again in March and April next year."

Recently, it has been reported that Yuantong, Shentong, Yunda, Baishi and other franchised listed companies all adjusted their fees on October 1. A number of express outlets in Guangdong have been sent to the reporters, all of whom have indicated that they have not yet received the notice of price increase. But some insiders said, "With the increase of distribution fees, the days of grass-roots outlets become more and more difficult. In order to compete with other outlets, they usually bear the increased distribution fees themselves."

It is worth noting that when the price of Tongdao increased, the long-dormant Jingdong Logistics timely launched the personal express business, because its price is between Tongdao and Shunfeng, it is regarded as a strong enemy. Guangzhou is one of its initial cities.

Does this mean that the express delivery industry is about to rise in price and price in peak season? What changes are taking place in the express delivery market in South China? Reporters to Shentong, Zhongtong, Yuantong, Yunda Express Company sent an interview letter, so far has not received a response.

"Access Department" grassroots network pressure

The official website of China Express said, "Starting from Oct. 1, the mechanism of adjusting express fees will be launched to adjust the express fees from the whole country to Shanghai. In other areas, we will inform you of the time of the express fee adjustment. " Specific cost adjustments will be implemented by local service outlets in accordance with headquarters guidance recommendations and in accordance with their respective actual conditions. Yuantong, Shentong, rhyme and Baishi will all adjust their fees in October 1st.

Usually, in the "three links and one access" franchise express business model, the headquarters of the express company is responsible for trunk transportation, while franchise outlets are responsible for collecting, dispatching and other work. The sending fee is the cost of sending the network to the outlets.

Take Guangdong Province, where express delivery and receipt are in the forefront of our country as an example. Will the increase in the shipping fee be transferred to the express fee in this area?

Reporters called several express franchise points in Foshan to learn about the situation, Yunda, Zhongtong said that the actual freight rates have not changed. Taking Foshan-Shanghai as an example, Shentong's actual freight rate is the first 12 yuan/kg, the second 8 yuan/kg; Yunda's first weight is the same as Shentong's, and the second weight is 10 yuan/kg; and Zhongtong Express's first weight is 10 yuan/kg, the second weight is 6 yuan/kg. The three party express said that headquarters had not yet received notice of the express price increase.

In fact, although the delivery fees of express companies are constantly rising, the actual delivery fees paid by consumers are not rising or falling. The data show that the average express delivery price is about 12 yuan per piece in 2017, 13.4 yuan per piece in 2015, 14.65 yuan per piece in 2014, 15.69 yuan per piece in 2013 and 18.6 yuan per piece in 2012.

Shao Zhonglin, former deputy secretary-general of China Express Association, has previously said that according to industry practice, delivery fees are paid by the receiving outlets from the express fees. The increase of the delivery fee belongs to the adjustment of the internal settlement mechanism of the express company, which is not directly related to the price of the express.

A related person in charge of Zhongtong Network told reporters that express outlets need to withstand headquarters indicators, peer competition and network manpower and other pressures, investment is not expensive, but the benefits are not high. From sending to receiving an express, some of them go through dozens of sites in the middle of the way, and each link needs to generate costs, most of which have been allocated in these links.

The cost is soaring.

For the increase of distribution fees, the industry mostly considers that transportation costs, labor costs, raw material prices and other factors led to the rise.

Shentong Express explained in the investors'interactive platform that the "double 11" express delivery peak season needs to temporarily increase a certain cost, adjusting the distribution fee is the industry's routine practice, the company will adjust the distribution fee in a timely and appropriate manner according to market conditions.

On October 11 last year, China Express announced that the reason for the increase in the distribution fees was the rising transportation costs, labor costs and raw material prices of the express industry.

An insider in the express industry said, "Transportation costs and personnel costs, cartons have risen this year. If prices go up, some customers will choose the faster SF, which will lead to customer churn. If prices are not increased, express delivery will be difficult. It will be harder to raise prices. "

Prices of raw materials, cardboard boxes, plastic, ink and other raw materials have surged this year. According to data provided by Zhuo Chuang, the average price of corrugated paper in China in 2017 was 4072 yuan/ton, up 51% from 2697 yuan/ton last year.

In addition, the upgrading of human resources is also a major pain point for the express delivery industry. According to the express industry sources, the average wage of the couriers in the past was 5000 yuan / month, which has improved this year.

According to the data of the first half report of "three links and one access" in 2018, the operating costs of Zhongtong Express, Yuantong Express, Shentong Express and Yunda are 5.253 billion yuan, 10.485 billion yuan, 5.371 billion yuan and 4.177 billion yuan, respectively, which are 40.8%, 46.33%, 20.50% and 40.85% higher than those of 2017.

Yang Daqing, a special researcher of China Logistics Society, believes that "the costs of transportation, manpower and raw materials are indeed rising significantly, and these costs especially reduce the profits of the primary franchisees. The building of franchisee express private enterprises is built on the beach of alliance mode. The foundation is not very strong. If we can not effectively solve the benign operation of grass-roots ecosystem, there may be grass-roots collapse.

In his view, the solution lies in: first, the grassroots level needs to benefit from effective management, improve quality through management, and reduce costs and increase efficiency; second, it needs to innovate business models, such as Tongda Department to explore the "Peixian Model" in the last kilometer, coordinate warehouses and promote joint distribution, which is also a good way to cope with the cost pressures at the grassroots level. Law. But fundamentally, express delivery market needs to improve industry concentration, establish industrial cluster coordination, and form an orderly market.

Gross profit margin slipped

In addition to being trapped in the rising cost of express industry, in order to enhance competitiveness and seize the market, grass-roots outlets bear increasing distribution fees.

According to upstream news reports, the head of a express Chongqing company said that the express delivery price was close to the industry's "life and death line", and the industry's profits had dropped from 10% three or four years ago to less than 5%. For example, compared with 5 years ago, the volume of express business in China has increased by nearly 10 times, but business income has increased by more than 3 times.

In recent years, China's express industry has developed rapidly, but the price of express has not increased. Statistics show that the average price of express delivery in China in 2012 was 18.56 yuan per unit, which dropped to 12.38 yuan per unit by 2017, a decline of 33%. The contrast is the declining gross margin.

According to the analysis of Galaxy Securities'report for the first half of 2018, the gross sales interest rates of Yunda Stock, Shunfeng Holdings, Shentong Express and Yuantong Express are 29.24%, 18.91%, 19.14% and 13.10% respectively; the net operating interest rates of Yunda Stock, Shunfeng Holdings, Shentong Express and Yuantong Express are 14.31%, 6.67%, 9.39% and 8.3%, respectively. 3%.

Yang Daqing believes that "the unit price down is the result of the price war of express enterprises, and the second is the result of the strong e-commerce merchants or shippers'pressure on express delivery in the disorderly market. When the cost goes up, the unit price of passenger will descend, which will inevitably lead to the decline of single ticket profit rate.

At present, the express delivery market is in a big adjustment period. For one thing, the seven listed express delivery enterprises are still in the balance of power competition, invisible subsidies and so on. For another, the entry of new logistics enterprises, including Beijing-East logistics and instant distribution, will increase the price war. New services are affecting the inherent express delivery system and price system.

New feeder

Despite the soaring cost and declining gross profit of express industry, it still attracts the logistics industry of Jingdong which has been dormant for a long time.

On October 18, 2008, at the Global Intelligent Logistics Summit, Jingdong Logistics CEO Wang Zhenhui announced that Jingdong Logistics officially launched express service for individual customers. At present, it has opened North express personal express business, and its express fee is higher than that of Tongda system, lower than that of Shun Feng.

Ge Jia, an Internet practitioner, believes that "if this market positioning strategy of Jingdong can be effectively implemented, it will surely have a greater impact on the personal express market."

However, even Jingdong logistics is difficult to resist the dilemma of rising costs. New businesses such as Jingdong Logistics lost 2.42 billion yuan in the second quarter of this year's earnings, an increase of six times over the same period last year. In the first half of 2017, the loss was only 380 million yuan.

For the current pattern differentiation of the logistics industry, Yang Daqing analysis, in the pyramid of the large logistics market, Shunfeng and Communications Department started from the upsurge of demand at the C-end of the tower bottom; Beijing East Logistics and Suning Logistics and other back-to-order platforms mostly started from the downward rush of demand at the B-end of the tower. In addition to Shunfeng's early establishment of a vertical integrated logistics system, the upstream enterprises have strong control, and other enterprises are indeed facing many challenges.

In his view, such enterprises as Jingdong Logistics and Suning Logistics have good control ability and discourse weight, but they also have challenges in breaking through the C-terminal business volume. Suning Logistics has cooperated with Ali Ecology. Suning Logistics's Express Express gets better business diversion of rookie wrapped up every day, so as to get C-end customers. If Jingdong Logistics gets the business diversion of Tencent Weixin, QQ and other related channels and makes ecological co-prevention, or has impact on the market pattern.

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