The consumption enlightenment dividend has passed. Do we still need "double 11"?

The consumption enlightenment dividend has passed. Do we still need

Original title: do we still need "double 11"?

Chen Bai

When Ma Yun chose to pass the helm of Ali's huge business empire to Zhang Yong this year, people suddenly realized what it meant to Ali that the accountant who created Skycat Shuang11 ten years ago.

If we stretch the timeline a little longer, we will find that ten years later, the world economy has not yet come out of the shaking shadow of 2009. It was also in that year that Singles Day was no longer a mockery of singles, and the national consumption Carnival of "Shuang11" was artificially created. It was also from that year that the constantly refreshing record of "Shuang11" trading volume made the power of consumption constantly highlighted, and consumption gradually became like that from the bottom of the troika driving the economy. The main force that we have to rely on today. The value of "double 11" is self-evident. In addition to making the world truly aware of China's consumption potential and completing the Enlightenment of e-commerce consumption in the domestic market, it also acts as a pressure test valve to urge Chinese companies and even the industry to move forward. Typical cases are that China's express delivery industry from the initial burst to the relatively orderly afterwards, behind which is the huge investment and layout of logistics infrastructure. In addition, the scale of day-to-day transactions has undoubtedly become a tremendous driving force for China's cloud computing and big data industries to move forward.

But on the other hand, whether Ali, the former maker of the game, or other e-commerce players who have been trying to share the dividend with him in recent years, it is an unavoidable fact that the traffic dividend is irretrievably disappearing with the decline of the number of netizens and even the growth rate of population. Every player on the battlefield knows in his heart that trees don't grow up to the sky and keep creating digital records of peak values, sooner or later the parabolic vertex will come.

As a matter of fact, the marginal effect of "double 11" has already arrived before the scale of heaven appears. Peak consumption at the sales juncture is an extreme survival test for bottom-up enterprises in the supply chain.

If in the first half of this journey, many enterprises are often difficult to judge the rapid growth of sales, then in the second half of this decade, "Shuang11" completed the stress test at the same time, inevitably formed the butterfly effect of resource allocation imbalance. It requires enterprises to reconfigure their own resources, which has almost changed the ecology of Chinese consumer goods manufacturers - not only means that enterprises should consider the peak effect of "Shuang11" in every link of production equipment, orders, logistics, sales, but also means that they need to consider "Shuang11". How should we hedge the cost of production for the sky exchange after the sales volume is over?

On the consumer level, 10 years ago, people were shocked by the huge transaction data of Shuang11. Sociologists were worried about the symptoms of the consumer society behind it, but everything seemed not as bad as we expected. The trend we can see is that the culture of "breaking away" not only creates emotional consumption rationality, but also reflects the choice of consumer goods. The effect of low price preference is no longer obvious, and the consumption of quality has become a new "upgrading point". This also makes today's "double 11" constantly adjust and transform their marketing routines.

However, it is certain that the consumption enlightenment dividend of "double 11" has passed. How much Blue Sea is left to explore in the retail market and how much space to dig out? Ten years later, e-commerce players need to prepare for the other side of the "double 11" coin.

Once upon a time, we thought that Internet + could lead Chinese companies to find a completely different way of retailing from WAL-MART mode. But ten years after the "Double 11" shopping spree, we may be able to understand the reason why Chinese e-commerce companies have to go back offline after subverting the line. Zhang Yong, who led the trend ten years ago and created the "Double 11" spree, is now trying to use Internet technology to add code to the layout of fine supply chain boxes and horses.

In traditional retailing, retail is a tough job. Nowadays, it seems that when the volume of "Shuang11" transactions no longer creates a record high, for Chinese e-commerce business people, the real test of internal merit is just beginning.

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