Original title: Changshan pharmaceutical industry, can your data withstand scrutiny?
Changshan pharmaceutical announced yesterday that 140 million men in China suffer from erectile dysfunction. But this may be a data that can not be verified to the scientific source.
Left birth one
A piece of news yesterday might have exploded in a man's pile. A lot of people may have turned their eyes to a man's eyes: is he impotent?
The "production" news is the Changshan pharmaceutical industry in Hebei. It has set up a new factory in Changzhou, Jiangsu, to produce a tablet for the treatment of male erectile dysfunction ("impotence", called "ED"), that is, Sildenafil Citrate Tablets (commonly known as "Viagra"). The establishment of the factory was approved by the Jiangsu food and drug administration. The announcement was made by the Changshan pharmaceutical industry announcement issued by the listed company. Because this is a new field for Changshan pharmaceutical industry.
In order to set up the factory, the Changshan pharmaceutical industry said in the announcement that the number of ED patients in China is about 140 million, assuming that 30% of them receive treatment, the number will reach 42 million, assuming that the ED patients receiving treatment can use drugs many times a year, and the potential market size of China is expected to reach 100 billion yuan in the future, and the market space is wide. Broad.
A lot of people might think, is there so much? According to the statistics of the National Bureau of statistics, up to the end of 2017, a total of 710 million men in China, abandoned the elderly and young people, some people calculate, this proportion is 3:1, that is, three men have one with ED! Isn't that a very big proportion? It's a little unacceptable.
Is this data credible? From which authoritative channel is it obtained? Changshan pharmaceutical later responded, data from Guoxin Securities. Another securities company, Soochow securities, published a survey report in February last year for the Baiyun Mountain pharmaceutical industry, the Chinese version of "Viagra", showed that 127 million men have impotence in China.
The two data are very similar. But where is the data of Guoxin Securities and Soochow securities? Presumably, is the estimate obtained from a hospital that treats the disease? Many medical professionals say such data is extremely difficult to obtain. Even the government's Department of health and health committee does not necessarily have this data.
Because no man is going to the hospital to check whether he is suffering from ED, and agrees that the hospital tells others such privacy, even if it is just a data. Therefore, from the access channel, no matter whether the Changshan pharmaceutical industry dumped the pot to anyone, it is hard to get this huge amount of data.
The evidence of failure is from Baiyun Mountain. Baiyun Mountain produced 43 million "Viagra" in 2017, although production increased by half in 2016, and sales increased by 52% year on year, but the stock has increased by 86% over the same period. Baiyun Mountain explains this because "with the increase in market demand, inventory has increased year by year." But this explanation is very irrelevant!
At this point, or may think, Changshan pharmaceutical industry just took an unreliable data to tell investors, tell the regulators, they invested in the factory is able to make money, everyone is relieved.
In fact, they may even doubt their authenticity. Therefore, the author appeals to the relevant regulatory authorities to re-examine the Changshan pharmaceutical industry, and whether there is any irregularities that mislead investors with unreliable data.
Left birth one (media person)
Editor in responsibility: Zhang Yan
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