Original title: suddenly turn over! After North Korea stopped North South meeting, is Kim Jeong-eun still planning to meet Trump?
Just as the situation on the peninsula is slowing down, the 16 day's "morning lines" break the "established script" in an instant.
North Korea not only halted the north south high level meeting to be held that day, but also warned the us to think twice about the fate of the DPRK summit next month. For a while, the prospect of the "special fund" has become flicker, and the sky on the Korean Peninsula is also cloudy.
Why DPRK suddenly changed
It seems to be a dramatic scene: the Korean leaders have crossed the military demarcation line more than half a month ago, the declaration of the Panmunjom is not dry, the time and place of the summit of the United States and the DPRK have been finalized, and even the DPRK has "said it" and began to close its nuclear facilities. But now it has changed abruptly, "shaking the" Korean and senior officials' meetings, and "thinking twice" of the DPRK summit.
Why did North Korea suddenly join the US and South Korea?
According to the DPRK, it was the result of a recent provocation and confrontation between the United States and the United States. The DPRK was not interested in the issue of the denuclearization of the United States.
The first vice minister of North Korea's Ministry of foreign affairs, Kim Kwan, warned that if the United States insisted on "Libya model" and tried to force the DPRK to "unilaterally" abandon its nuclear power, the DPRK would reconsider whether to participate in the DPRK summit.
According to the Broadcasting British Corporation (BBC), the United States and South Korea's recent "super thunder" routine military exercise was planned to be held during the Pingchang Winter Olympics, but it was postponed because of the unexpected thawing of the relationship between the north and the south. North Korea also expressed its understanding of the ROK US military exercise.
Is North Korea going to raise the price?
Li Kaisheng, a researcher at the International Institute of problems at the Shanghai Academy of Social Sciences, believes that the military performance is only an excuse and a reason, that there may be two reasons for the DPRK's move: first, first strategies. Before the summit of the US DPRK, it was used as a means to raise the asking price (such as aid, sign peace treaties and obtain security assurances) to the US side. Second, first strategic considerations. The DPRK may not be prepared to abandon its nuclear power, because it does not believe that the United States can fulfill its promises and guarantees, reconsider the changes in international relations, the changes in the regional situation, and that the DPRK has taken the initiative through a series of diplomatic movements.
With regard to nuclear abandonment, North Korea have a new idea?
According to the analysis of Zhang Liangui, a professor of international politics at the Party School of the Central Party school, the relationship between North Korea and Korea is going too fast. For Korea, there is a problem of adaptation, and the North Korea is thinking about whether it should be pushed forward according to its own rhythm. Of course, the more important reason is that North Korea may have new ideas about abandoning nuclear weapons.
In the view of Zhang Lian, it was a realistic choice for the DPRK to get rid of the economic and security predicament before the South Korean relations had broken ice, held a summit meeting with a high profile, announced the abandonment of the nuclear and the United States. However, with the improvement of relations with China and South Korea, to a considerable extent the strong sanctions imposed by the Security Council and the United States, the DPRK may intend to withdraw its nuclear decision, slow down the pace of North South relations, and reconsider the US - DPRK summit.
And analysts speculate that this is a test balloon released by the North Korean leader Kim Jeong-eun to President Trump before the summit.
Trump tried to test the sincerity and firmness of the summit, and to test the president's willingness to make concessions on a number of issues and whether the two sides could achieve better results.
Zhang Liangui said that in the eyes of the United States, the core issue of the "special fund" is denuclearization and how to achieve denuclearization. Trump called on the DPRK to abandon nuclear weapons in a short time, and it is "completely, verifiable and irreversible". North Korea Demands phased nuclear disarmament. There are major differences between the two sides.
"Kim Jeong-eun's latest move is probably to test Trump's willingness to make concessions before abandoning the nuclear issue before the summit," he said. The Reuters said.
DPRK's expression is just a venting discontent?
It is also pointed out that North Korea's latest statement is to vent its dissatisfaction with the United States. North Korea met, agreed to meet with Trump and released American prisoners to abolish a nuclear test site, and North Korea thought he had made concessions but did not receive a corresponding return. Washington still maintains sanctions, emphasizes "extreme pressure", and even claims that North Korea's "change of mind" is the result of sanctions and pressure imposed by the United States.
And the president's national security affairs assistant Bolton's recent "threat" remarks are angered by North Korea. According to the CNN (CNN), the "Libya model" mentioned in the warning is from the mouth of Bolton, who said Libya is a potential model for the denuclearization of North Korea. Bolton also claimed that the Singapore summit would be a touchstone for Kim Jeong-eun's decision to abandon nuclear strategy.
Oliver Hotham, the executive editor of the Korean risk, said the Trump administration has always regarded the denuclearization as a already traded business, and has also talked about abandoning the economic compensation after the nuclear power, and is anxious to send North Korea's nuclear facilities abroad. "Now, North Korea has made it clear that nuclear weapons will not be a piece of cake, and they will be tough and fight back."
An interlude or a backlash?
The latest position of the DPRK will bring variables to the DPRK summit next month. Will the difficult easing of the peninsula situation stop abruptly or even "rewind"?
So far, the US response has been relatively calm. White House spokesman Saunders said, "the United States will consider North Korea's argument in an unbiased way and continue to work closely with our allies."
According to American media, South Korean Foreign Minister Kang Jing and the United States Secretary of state on Wednesday spoke on the phone to discuss the sudden refusal of North Korea to take part in the South Korean high-level talks. Pompeio said the US side will continue to prepare for the "special fund meeting" and will continue to focus on North Korea's response.
Analysts predict that Pyongyang is unlikely to abandon the DPRK summit because it has been trying to negotiate with the United States. Adam Monte, a North Korean expert at the American Federation of scientists, said Pyongyang is seeking to amend the terms of the negotiations, rather than completely ending negotiations.
Li Kaisheng also believes that the heads of the US and DPRK are still likely to meet because this is a great diplomatic victory for both Kim Jeong-eun and Trump. However, whether the meeting can achieve tangible results is a fundamental problem. If the DPRK insists on its established nuclear route after the talks, then the prospects for resolving the DPRK nuclear issue will not be optimistic. Moreover, even if results are achieved, the key depends on sustainability. Instead of "reversing" like the north and South Korea, holding the summit from a high-profile summit suddenly stopped the senior officials' meeting.
Looking forward to the trend of the situation on the Korean Peninsula, Zhang Lian thinks that if the DPRK does produce new ideas on the abandonment of the nuclear power and changes its fundamental policy, the situation of the peninsula will be greatly uncertain, and it will not exclude the situation that will return to the end of January this year. If North Korea's latest expression is only dissatisfied with the current situation, but there is no change in the fundamental policy, it is still willing to talk to Trump about the abandonment of the nuclear, then the situation on the peninsula will continue on the existing track. Finally, this is just an amazing episode.
Editor in responsibility: Zhang Yan
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